Minggu, 10 Agustus 2014

A Scientific Revolution in Finance

A Scientific Revolution in Finance
July 15, 2014


A financial revolution has begun, one that leverages the power of psychological data to help investors make better decisions. 

IMATCHATIVE, a San Francisco-based company, is a key player in this sea change. Their network, AltX, , connects investors with hedge funds, using the same nuanced behavioral models that have upended the worlds of movie-rental, bookselling, and online dating.

Embodying AltX's human-centered vision is Dr. Thomas Oberlechner, the company's Chief Science Officer. Oberlechner comes to AltX from the worlds of clinical psychology and academia, and his groundbreaking research on behavioral drivers in financial markets has been covered in the Washington Post, the BBC, and the Neue Z├╝rcher Zeitung.

According to Oberlechner, the next generation of investing tools are moving beyond risk-adjusted return as their sole guiding metric. "The traditional focus on outcome data is shortsighted," Oberlechner says. "These outcomes are produced in the interaction between highly volatile, unpredictable environments, so you never really know whether the returns are based on chance or skill."

Oberlechner credits AltX's success to the fact that recent breakthroughs in behavioral science are built into the application's core. “We're taking elements of how people decide and understand the market around them," he explains. "We're analyzing their unique personalities, values, goals, and ways of processing information. Then we integrate that into our models."

Those AltX models combine Oberlechner's psychological insights with deep financial data and a powerful analytics engine. The resulting mix of qualitative and quantitative information greatly facilitates investors to find the right funds for their needs. 

"This," says Oberlechner, "is where science and systematic behavioral assessments can tremendously support traditional investment approaches that focus on past outcomes only."

The secret of every revolutionary financial tool, Oberlechner explains, is adaptability.

“What differentiates good therapists from bad therapists is that they can flexibly adjust to who they are dealing with, and don't impose the same model on everyone. Providing support to financial decision-makers is no different—the more you know about what makes an investor unique and the behavioral make-up of fund managers, the better you can connect both sides."

That support, he says, can literally change the way both groups see the world. “It's transforming flat, two-dimensional shadows of financial decision-makers into full, three-dimensional people and organizations.”

Interested in finding out more about Dr. Oberlechner and AltX?  Visit www.GetAltX.com

Minggu, 25 Mei 2014

Some Evidence Accuracy and Precision Prediction of the Bioeconomica Natural or Econobusiness Biocycle Dynamic

My vision is midterm and longterm for investment driven and shortterm trading. This support with experiences in Socioeconomic & Land Mapping Survey and Region Planning Report, so that I have Long Vision in Biocycle Dynamic Mechanism on Human Life Activities, include Econobusiness Biocycle Dynamic or Natural Bio-Economic that based on Natural Law Driven.This method can be accurate and finely to know and predicted on Economic, Business, Technology, Social, Politic and Life Environment whats going on in the Future (midterm 1 - 5 years and longterm 5 - 25 years)

- How to think Biological Methods in Economics and other disciplines

I make this prediction based on the data chart (technical ) and fundamental data, both micro (stock) and macroeconomic (forex and commodities) that we though the biological method , just as the conditional reflex , the law of diminishing return , bio-rhythmic, complex ecosystem harmony and others. Determination of the biological portion of our predictions are 45 %, 30 % Technical Charts and 25 % of Macroeconomic Fundamentals. Bioeconomic Natural Method timing and momentum will wear during recovery conditions (rebound) after experiencing consolidation followed by a cycle of prosperity (bullish), where nature will provide power for uphill riding (exceeds the force of gravity to go down). Later on consolidation at its peak in the form of doom, the trade is likely to make best efforts to keep rising, so the consolidation will happen if it continues to rise forcing excessive saturation will occur or in the words of Georges Soros is self-reinforcing as the deadline for who can no longer ride and will be similar landslides or rupture of the dam water is catastrophic (collapse) prices in the stock market, forex and commodities. This is evident from the condition of the monetary and economic crisis Indonesia in 1997/1998, which saw economic growth continues to be driven at the level of 7 %, but Indonesia carrying capacity was not able to contain the inflation rate is always high, resulting in overheating by "Overinvestment and Overconsumption" and this is conditions eventually make an Crash Landing.

- Excessive desire without self-support ability and potential that good and strong
 
         Economists and business people should have to see that the economic race like a Formula 1 circuit ( Michael Schumacer ) and MotoGP, when to speeding with gears 4-5, when to put the brakes near the bend and lower gears to 1-3, cornering slowly, then accelerated faster if has entered the straight track as a linear line. So far, economists and business people continue to want to grow fast without seeing that there is a tidal wave, up hill down hill and also underestimates the rhythm of his racing car aerodynamics without sufficient down force. It is also happening in America and Europe (case nearly bankrupted Greece, Spain, Portugal and symptoms in the UK), where the Investment Banking spur its economy, especially investment in derivatives with various levels that led to many major banks suffered a major loss and the collapse of Lehman Brothers and 200 more banks and possibly thousands of companies large and small, like leaves falling in autumn (fall). This fall will create turmoil and crisis and the fall of the government either directly through revolution (like the fall of the New Order regime) or by the next election, as is the case in Europe where some of the country's leaders lost the election. because they can not drown out the upheavals and the economic crisis, so much banks and large corporate enterprises and medium bankrupt or suffered great losses that must be done bailout that actually adds to a growing debt burden. It is a pattern of rescue and problem solving are actually very irrational, because it only saves large corporates (Too Big to Fail) that it actually is the manufacturer's own economic problems as an Trouble Maker. While small companies who do not obey the financial principle and large debt loads have instead often forgotten, including the little people more vulnerable to the economic crisis became so poor and unemployment due to layoffs and most are given a social safety net as well as the temporary stimuli (that is also possible of new debt) that the effect is only slight and not significant to revive the economic engine that hamppir ebsar bankrupt because of debt, either in installments or interest debts. Not to mention the many moral hazard and fraud in banking and business , giving rise to the crisis of confidence due to the swift Capital Outflow abroad and the collapse of the Rupiah. This is in contrast with China is able to sustain its economic growth rate in at 9.5 - 11.0% per year with low inflation as well as a conducive business climate.

- Prevention Ways with the Early Warning System       

Here I used the Bio-Risk Management and Bio-Natural Concept to determine the Preventive Ways crisis with the Early Warning System of the rise and fall of the movement (oscillation fluctuations) that if more stringent and more like a volcanologist hard to know when the eruption of a volcano or physician can determine the condition of the patient chart heartbeat or climatologists can predict when it will rain with high winds or storms .Bio Economic Natural is focus on preventive safely without the risk of than just the cost of problem solving that cost, and the victim time to be recovery. Georges Soros with Reflection method of "Walking 6 Months in Home curve" can be used to determine the occurrence of a crisis or turmoil (turbulencies). 

- Some evidence of appropriate and accurate predictions as below :
 
1. Turbulence which caused the monetary and economic crisis Indonesian 1997 that I have been predicted in 1994 that the value of Rupiah will drop (depreciated) to more than Rp. 17,500 / 1 US$ to the SBI more than 30 % due to reaction (IMF advice) to a sharp decline in the rupiah. It turned increasingly Rupiah down to Rp . 17.000,- due to panic us by buying US$ and speculation, so that when the IMF was invited, suggested to increase generic prescribing SBI (Indonesia Bank Certificate) up to 70 % and finally began to strengthen towards Dollar under Rp . 10.000an.

2. In 1999, after two years of crisis, I predicted that the economic crisis will began to subside in 2004 with growth from 4 to 5.5 % and finally began to rise in2007 with an economic growth of 5.75 % - 6.1 %, despite never reaching 6.3 % in the Megawati era in 2003, but its condition has not stabilized properly to bounce back.

3. In 2005, shortly before the reduction of the fuel subsidy, we predict that the Euro will depreciate more than Rp. 11,250 (at the time the prediction is still rupiah at Rp. 8.850an and finally it had touched rupiah at Rp. 11750-12000 at several major banks. We also predict that the SBI will go to 12-14%, while many economists have argued that the SBI will only reach to 10.0% only, SBI turns it reached 12.75%. Similarly, the Euro where almost all well-known economists predict that the Euro may not exceed Rp. 10,000, but I say it out loud in a radio Surabaya guided by Prof. economists. DR. Wibisono H. (UBAYA Rector and Chairman of the Indonesian Rectors Forum at the time) and DR. Pandu ak. (Head Master UBAYA) that will inevitably lead to Rupiah IDR. 12,000. Taklshow was attended by entrepreneurs, professionals and also bankers in Surabaya on every Saturday morning.

4. I also correctly predicted in 2001 when the Iraq crisis until the U.S. invasion in 2003, the U.S. economy will experience a mild to moderate recession in 2007/2008. This invasion is just a trigger for the recession that is already fragile U.S. since 1998, where overlaid by an aggresive Cut Rate Policy  that makes a variety of economic vulnerability due to the increasing number of lines of credit, especially small and medium business sector in various ladders..Moreover this is derivatived on subprime mortgages business without based on the underlying assets and strong business in a small to medium sized business sector is highly vulnerable to turmoil and an economic downturn.

5. Predicted the fall of the Suharto regime in 1998 since 1993, the failure of capitalism system such as is the case this time since 1993 that soon changed to Soft Capitalism or Modern Socialism (such as Chinese or Scandinavian models), the accounting system should be renewed before the accounting fraud case (Enron) in the USA in 2001, entered the military barracks in 2000 by the 1998 reform since 1993 and the emergence of China as a world economic power it is today that we have predicted since 1989.

6. Cases mudflow in Sidoarjo, where there is a debate whether it is caused by a natural disaster or earthquake Jogya just one oil drilling by PT. Minarak Lapindo. According to geologists, mining and others that it will decrease the appearance of mud back at the time had reached 25,000 m3/second bursts. But I said in a radio station that will reach 150,000 m3/second bursts and eventually turns it really happened, while the mining and geological experts forecast even predicted that slip away because it is only temporary bursts that will eventually decrease again.

7. A number of flood disasters, such as in Situbondo in 2001 I predicted since 1998, large floods in Jakarta in 2002 since 1999. Similarly, by way of Open Minded and Divergence Opinion and  Thinking of the "Power of Nature World System and the Universe Kingdom", then you can feel the vibrations of impending earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, including a variety of signal fluctuation and political and economic crisis, and others from the results of the analysis "Method of Economics Natural Bio / Econobusiness Biocycle Dynamics" by Biological Analysis based on the Holistic Natural Law with the Power of the Natural Law and not based Economics Conventional that already Expiration because no longer able to manage and predict aspects of Welfare Economics for Humanity, but just for the sake of The Rich and Developed Countries are just now facing the Economic Recession and Debt Crisis.

       This method can also be used in the field of Political, Social, Agriculture (in the broad sense),  Health, The Natural Environment and others who generally are multi-dimensional and not physical, static and linieristik merely the calculation always refers to mathematical calculations and statistics.


Footnote :


         Fluctuations in short-term (daily and weekly) will occur naturally influenced by state of mentality, passion, taste, motivation of global mass psychology to take trading positions in a market that is crowded and often chaotic. If there is data or news that very fundamental economic conditions, business and politics, fluctuations in stock price movements will occur dynamically and both meteoric and volatile free fall in excess of the daily forecast. But in the medium and long-term investment will be influenced dynamically by biocycle and biorhytmic of legal and natural forces are always moving up and down dynamically. So you not only have to Globalization with Globalnet (internet system) but also now should have a vision in a way Galaxization with Galaxinet even the Whole Universes* * (Astronomical).


         Where we can know the strains and the condition of the Universe Kingdom in the short term (10 years), medium term of 50 years and long term 100-200 years), which will also be evident in a "Certainty of Life rather than Uncertainty Life " who always complained of many parties, including the leaders of the state policy makers, leaders of business policy (industrialists and traders) as well as experts in various fields of life. The power and influence of Natural, Galaxy and Universes Law (Universes Kingdom / Source One in Central Sun Universe) this will always affect every aspect of our lives on this planet, either consciously or unconsciously to anticipate properly.

Let see Monthly and Weekly Forecast 
on  Forex, World Indexes and 
Commodities Market

Managing Your Funds with High Return Low Risk

Contact :
Edmond F. La'lang
Email  :   edmond.lalang@gmail.com
Telp.    :  +62031-3538606
HP         :  +62081-553080521 
Linkedin : 
http://www.linkedin.com/home?trk=hb_tab_home_top

Senin, 03 Juni 2013

Bio-Economic Natural can help the Corporates to avoid many risks on Momentum in Time Series Fluctuation in Ecnomic and Business in Prosperity or Recession Period By: Edmond F. La'lang (economic and natural environment observer)


By : Edmond F. Lalang (Economic and Environtment Observer)


- Utilization of Bio-Economic Natural in every aspect of life, included Economic and Business Life Cycle



           Bio-Economic Natural can help the Corporates to avoid many risks on Momentum in Time Series Fluctuation in Ecnomic and Business in Prosperity or Recession Period to match on their Strategic Management Policy and Action Plan in Shorterm, Midterm and Longterm Vision. Bio-Economic Natural can be utilized in relation to the various predictions of the likelihood of the risk of changes in economic growth, interest rate loan, the rate of inflation, fluctuations in prices of raw materials and auxiliary materials, changes in consumer tastes, the level of competition, shrinking market share, the emergence of new competitors and new products and many other factors that could affect the company's business growth. Various external factors this variable will affect the viability (survival), the profit rate, the amount of cash flow, interest repayments and mortgage companies credit, competitiveness, and others. Here we use the Risk Management and another Bio Natural to find out the crisis with the "Preventive Ways" and "Early Warning System" of movement up and down (wave fluctuations) that if more stringent and harder as an expert volcanologist can tell when the eruption a volcano or a physician can determine the condition of the patient's heart rate chart or climatologists can predict when it will rain with high winds or storms.

- Bio-Economic Natural Focusing on Preventive Ways with Early warning System

           Bio-Economic Natural, focused on preventive security "without the cost of risk" than just problem solving (Problem Solving) is a cost, and the victim time to recover (recovery). Georges Soros with the Reflection method "6 Months Running in Front of the Curve" can first find out the occurrence of a crisis or turmoil and turbulencies.  Nor able to predict a variety of business opportunities to be captured and utilized optimally before being competitors of your company. Natural bio-economy can provide assistance to industry, particularly manufacturing to be able to plan, organize, matching, synergize and synchronize a number of financial planning, - production and marketing in a time frame (timing) in order to achieve implementation of the principles of efficiency, effectiveness and value-added larger and can avoid the various risks that are not desired by the company (preventive ways). This method can perform a variety of forecast with accuracy, and when supported by a 3-dimensional computerized system, it will be more accurate, precise and reliable. So the company can perform a variety of short-term, midterm and longterm planning in the execution or decision-making when , what and how things like :

         Preventive Ways to avoid any risk in the market and business fluctuations in every stage of economic and business life cycle. Bio-Economic Natural will always perform a system of economic planning business is prevention ways that would establish an early warning system to avoid and prevent the occurrence of various problems and risks that could affect the growth rate, profitability, toughness and stability rate, competitiveness and business survival in an increasingly global competition is free, hard and cruel. With bio-economic natural, then we can set the pace and rhythm of the business like a great orchestra with a conductor to produce a symphony of beautiful music and quality with the survival and competitiveness of the great and powerful. So the company can go ahead even if it means facing obstacles, challenges and economic turmoil in the course of space and time to move forward and can grow well in both normal and crisis conditions. Thus the company will be able to survive for tens or even hundreds of years in peace and harmony with the business environment, human (social) and the natural environment.


- Some Corporate Strategic Management to anticipated and prevent on various risks  can be done in Good Business Policy


1. When and how to do the expansion, turn around, hold business, stay outside or even divestation; to matching with consideration on their market share growth, their organic corporate growth, hike of the fluctuation price products, new product launching, the other opportunities of various market, level of competition, how to solve and face the new government regulation, inflation rate, interest rate, the other macro economic indicators and so on .

2. When exactly to take a rational comparison of business credit and safely capital structure with the amount of credit against the credit risk ;

3. When to buy raw materials and auxiliary materials and the rhythm of ups and downs of the production batch number of the match with a cycle of ups and downs of product sales;

4. How can you really know the graph changes in consumer tastes and the expiration of a new product by product, advances technology and changes in consumer tastes by changes in the system, performance and technology ; 

5. When the sunset of a type of industry, anticipation on the possibility of a decreased level of a country's economic growth and global ;

6. What are the constraints, challenges and risks according to the rhythm of fluctuations in market for anticipated ;

7. How to deal with the level of competition and the entry of new competitors with different types of new products are better quality and competitive price ;

8. How likely magnitude of losses, the amount and type of foreign currency loans, the currency type and placement of deposits from the sale and retained earnings, the level of loan repayments and interest ;

9. How does the level of utilization of funds for mass production level, the efficient utilization of raw materials, inventory, channel distribution, the amount of funds in marketing and sales strategies, remuneration ;

10. How can you know the cycle of economic and business up and down to match with your strategic planning to face the global and local competition and avoid many risks and problems of economic downturn ;
11. How you can switch your depositors in stocks, forex and commodities to follow the cycle up and down to get much more gain and also at once to avoid the market and business risks ;


12. Often many companies and individuals with confidence and passion take on debt to commercial banking and investment banking to the position that has been profitable shares in the stock market, bonds, debentures and other various financial derivatives and commodity prices to benefit many times with assumption that the stock market, money market and commodity markets will continue to skyrocket until a few years into the future. But unfortunately, it did not happen, so that in times of turmoil, crisis and the economic recession, where the value of the stock price. bonds, debt, derivatives and commodities down quickly or free fall that led to the company or individual will bear huge losses and even become insolvent or bankrupt

13. Utilize the amount of money circulating with excessively enermous leveraging magnitude in the world of banking and finance, where the book value, the stock price and the value of future net and from every country, even with just based on GDP and GNP values ​​calculated mathematically to produce an excellent rating and prospective. But this ranking is obvious for medium and long term, because of the constraints fluctuations are often very dynamic and even volatile, so it will produce severe systemic effects in the aggregate to weaken economic conditions and economic sector of micro and macro economics in a country with economic conditions foamy (bubble economy) with a flood of hot money in the financial markets are often speculative. And if the warming in the real sector economy with high inflation indication (overheating economy), by flooding the money supply due to low cost funds in the banking of monetary easing (ease money policy) by the Central Bank which is often pushed by the higher levels of consumerism, where the demand is often greater than the supply of goods and services, even though the price continues to rise ;

14. and many other things to do an economic analysis of Econobusiness Biocycle Dynamic that are natural based on variety natural constraints.


Footnote :

         Fluctuations in short-term (daily and weekly) will occur naturally influenced by state of mentality, passion, taste, motivation of global mass psychology to take trading positions in a market that is crowded and often chaotic. If there is data or news that very fundamental economic conditions, business and politics, fluctuations in stock price movements will occur dynamically and both meteoric and volatile free fall in excess of the daily forecast. But in the medium and long-term investment will be influenced dynamically by biocycle and biorhytmic of legal and natural forces are always moving up and down dynamically. So you not only have to Globalization with Globalnet (internet system) but also now should have a vision in a way Galaxization with Galaxinet even the World Universes * * (Astronomical).


         Where we can know the strains and the condition of the Universe Kingdom in the short term (10 years), medium term of 50 years and long term 100-200 years), which will also be evident in a "Certainty of Life rather than Uncertainty Life " who always complained of many parties, including the leaders of the state policy makers, leaders of business policy (industrialists and traders) as well as experts in various fields of life. The power and influence of Natural, Galaxy and Universes Law (Universe Kingdom / Source One in Central Sun Universe) this will always affect every aspect of our lives on this planet, either consciously or unconsciously to anticipate properly.


Let see Monthly and Weekly Forecast 
on  Forex, World Indexes and 
Commodities Market

Managing Your Funds with High Return Low Risk

Contact :
Edmond F. La'lang
Email  :   edmond.lalang@gmail.com
Telp.    :  +62031-3538606
HP         :  +62081-553080521
Linkedin : 
http://www.linkedin.com/home?trk=hb_tab_home_top
Facebook : Edmond F. La'lang  

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