My vision is midterm and longterm for investment driven and shortterm
trading. This support with experiences in Socioeconomic & Land
Mapping Survey and Region Planning Report, so that I have Long Vision in
Biocycle Dynamic Mechanism on Human Life Activities, include
Econobusiness Biocycle Dynamic or Natural Bio-Economic that based on
Natural Law Driven.This method can be accurate and finely to know and
predicted on Economic, Business, Technology, Social, Politic and Life
Environment whats going on in the Future (midterm 1 - 5 years and
longterm 5 - 25 years)
- How to think Biological Methods in Economics and other disciplines
I make this prediction based on the data chart (technical ) and
fundamental data, both micro (stock) and macroeconomic (forex and
commodities) that we though the biological method , just as the
conditional reflex , the law of diminishing return , bio-rhythmic,
complex ecosystem harmony and others. Determination
of the biological portion of our predictions are 45 %, 30 % Technical
Charts and 25 % of Macroeconomic Fundamentals. Bioeconomic Natural Method timing and momentum will wear during recovery conditions (rebound) after experiencing consolidation followed by a cycle of
prosperity (bullish), where nature will provide power for uphill
riding (exceeds the force of gravity to go down). Later
on consolidation at its peak in the form of doom, the trade is likely
to make best efforts to keep rising, so the consolidation will happen
if it continues to rise forcing excessive saturation will occur or in
the words of Georges Soros is self-reinforcing as
the deadline for who
can no longer ride and will be similar landslides or rupture of the dam
water is catastrophic (collapse) prices in the stock market, forex and
commodities. This
is evident from the condition of the monetary and economic crisis
Indonesia in 1997/1998, which saw economic growth continues to be
driven at the level of 7 %, but Indonesia carrying capacity was not able to
contain the inflation rate is always high, resulting in overheating by
"Overinvestment and Overconsumption" and this is conditions eventually make an Crash Landing.
- Excessive desire without self-support ability and potential that good and strong
Economists
and business people should have to see that the economic race like a
Formula 1 circuit ( Michael Schumacer ) and MotoGP, when to speeding
with gears 4-5, when to put the brakes near the bend and lower gears to
1-3, cornering slowly, then accelerated faster if has entered the straight track as a linear line. So
far, economists and business people continue to want to grow fast
without seeing that there is a tidal wave, up hill down hill and also
underestimates the rhythm of his racing car aerodynamics without
sufficient down force. It
is also happening in America and Europe (case nearly bankrupted Greece, Spain, Portugal and symptoms in the UK), where the Investment
Banking spur its economy, especially investment in derivatives with
various levels that led to many major banks suffered a major loss and
the collapse of Lehman Brothers and 200 more banks and possibly thousands of companies large and small, like leaves falling in autumn (fall). This
fall will create turmoil and crisis and the fall of the government
either directly through revolution (like the fall of the New Order
regime) or by the next election, as is the case in Europe where some of
the country's leaders lost the election. because they can not drown out
the upheavals and the economic crisis, so much banks
and large corporate enterprises and medium bankrupt or suffered great
losses that must be done bailout that actually adds to a growing debt
burden. It
is a pattern of rescue and problem solving are actually very
irrational, because it only saves large corporates (Too Big to Fail)
that it actually is the manufacturer's own economic problems as an Trouble
Maker. While
small companies who do not obey the financial principle and large debt
loads have instead often forgotten, including the little people more
vulnerable to the economic crisis became so poor and unemployment due to
layoffs and most are given a social safety net as well as the temporary
stimuli (that is also possible of
new debt) that the effect is only slight and not significant to revive
the economic engine that hamppir ebsar bankrupt because of debt, either
in installments or interest debts. Not
to mention the many moral hazard and fraud in banking and business ,
giving rise to the crisis of confidence due to the swift Capital Outflow
abroad and the collapse of the Rupiah. This is in contrast with China is able to sustain its economic growth
rate in at 9.5 - 11.0% per year with low inflation as well as a
conducive business climate.
- Prevention Ways with the Early Warning System
Here I used the Bio-Risk Management and Bio-Natural Concept to determine the
Preventive Ways crisis with the Early Warning System of the rise and
fall of the movement (oscillation fluctuations) that if more stringent
and more like a volcanologist hard to know when the eruption of a
volcano or physician can determine the condition of the patient chart heartbeat
or climatologists can predict when it will rain with high winds or
storms .Bio Economic Natural is focus on preventive safely without the risk of than just the
cost of problem solving that cost, and the victim time to be recovery. Georges
Soros with Reflection method of "Walking 6 Months in Home curve" can
be used to determine the occurrence of a crisis or turmoil (turbulencies).
- Some evidence of appropriate and accurate predictions as below :
1. Turbulence which caused the monetary and economic crisis Indonesian 1997 that I have been predicted in 1994 that the value of Rupiah will drop (depreciated) to more than Rp. 17,500 / 1 US$ to the SBI more than 30 % due to reaction (IMF advice) to a sharp decline in the rupiah. It turned increasingly Rupiah down to Rp . 17.000,- due to panic us by buying US$ and speculation, so that when the IMF was invited, suggested to increase generic prescribing SBI (Indonesia Bank Certificate) up to 70 % and finally began to strengthen towards Dollar under Rp . 10.000an.
2. In 1999, after two years of crisis, I predicted that the economic crisis will began to subside in 2004 with growth from 4 to 5.5 % and finally began to rise in2007 with an economic growth of 5.75 % - 6.1 %, despite never reaching 6.3 % in the Megawati era in 2003, but its condition has not stabilized properly to bounce back.
3. In 2005, shortly before the reduction of the fuel subsidy, we predict that the Euro will depreciate more than Rp. 11,250
(at the time the prediction is still rupiah at Rp. 8.850an and finally
it had touched rupiah at Rp. 11750-12000 at several major banks. We also
predict that the SBI will go to 12-14%, while many economists have
argued that the SBI will
only reach to 10.0% only, SBI turns it reached 12.75%. Similarly, the
Euro where almost all well-known economists predict that the Euro may
not exceed Rp. 10,000, but I say it out loud in a radio Surabaya guided
by Prof.
economists. DR. Wibisono H. (UBAYA Rector and Chairman of the
Indonesian Rectors Forum at the time) and DR. Pandu ak. (Head Master
UBAYA) that will inevitably lead to Rupiah IDR. 12,000. Taklshow was
attended by entrepreneurs, professionals and also bankers in Surabaya on every Saturday morning.
4. I also correctly predicted in 2001 when the Iraq crisis until the
U.S. invasion in 2003, the U.S. economy will experience a mild to
moderate recession in 2007/2008. This
invasion is just a trigger for the recession that is already fragile
U.S. since 1998, where overlaid by an aggresive Cut Rate Policy that makes a
variety of economic vulnerability due to the increasing number of lines
of credit, especially small and medium business sector in various ladders..Moreover this is derivatived on subprime mortgages business without based on the underlying assets and strong business in a small
to medium sized business sector is highly vulnerable to turmoil and an
economic downturn.
5.
Predicted the fall of the Suharto regime in 1998 since 1993, the
failure of capitalism system such as is the case this time since 1993
that soon changed to Soft Capitalism or Modern Socialism (such as
Chinese or Scandinavian models), the accounting system should be renewed
before the accounting fraud case (Enron) in the USA in 2001, entered the military barracks in 2000 by
the 1998 reform since 1993 and the emergence of China as a world
economic power it is today that we have predicted since 1989.
6.
Cases mudflow in Sidoarjo, where there is a debate whether it is caused
by a natural disaster or earthquake Jogya just one oil drilling by PT. Minarak Lapindo. According
to geologists, mining and others that it will decrease the appearance
of mud back at the time had reached 25,000 m3/second bursts. But I said in a radio station that will reach 150,000 m3/second bursts
and eventually turns it really happened, while the mining and
geological experts forecast even predicted that slip away because it is
only temporary bursts that will eventually decrease again.
7.
A number of flood disasters, such as in Situbondo in 2001 I predicted
since 1998, large floods in Jakarta in 2002 since 1999. Similarly, by way of Open Minded and Divergence Opinion and Thinking of the "Power of Nature
World System and the Universe Kingdom", then you
can feel the vibrations of impending earthquakes, volcanic eruptions,
including a variety of signal fluctuation and political and economic
crisis, and others from the results of the analysis "Method of Economics
Natural Bio / Econobusiness Biocycle Dynamics" by Biological Analysis based on the Holistic Natural Law with the Power of the Natural Law and not based Economics Conventional that already Expiration because no longer able to manage and predict aspects of Welfare Economics for Humanity, but just for the sake of The Rich and Developed Countries are just now facing the Economic Recession and Debt Crisis.
This
method can also be used in the field of Political, Social, Agriculture
(in the broad sense), Health, The Natural Environment and others who
generally are multi-dimensional and not physical, static and linieristik
merely the calculation always refers to mathematical calculations and statistics.
Footnote :
Fluctuations in short-term (daily and weekly) will occur naturally
influenced by state of mentality, passion, taste, motivation of global mass
psychology to take trading positions in a market that is crowded and often
chaotic. If there is data or news that very fundamental economic conditions,
business and politics, fluctuations in stock price movements will occur
dynamically and both meteoric and volatile free fall in excess of the daily forecast.
But in the medium and long-term investment will be influenced dynamically by
biocycle and biorhytmic of legal and natural forces are always moving up and
down dynamically. So you not only have to Globalization with Globalnet (internet system)
but also now should have a vision in a way Galaxization with Galaxinet even the Whole Universes* *
(Astronomical).
Where
we can know the strains and the condition of the Universe Kingdom
in the short term (10 years), medium term of 50 years and long term
100-200
years), which will also be evident in a "Certainty of Life rather than
Uncertainty Life " who always complained of many
parties, including the leaders of the state policy makers, leaders of
business
policy (industrialists and traders) as well as experts in various fields
of
life. The power and influence of Natural, Galaxy and Universes Law
(Universes Kingdom / Source One in Central Sun Universe) this will
always
affect every aspect of our lives on this planet, either consciously or
unconsciously to anticipate properly.
Commodities Market
