Rabu, 07 Maret 2012

Biocycle Dynamic of Business (Micro Economy)

By : Edmond F. Lalang (economic and environment observer)
     Biocycle and bio-rythmic dynamic of business (microeconomics) is forming actually macroeconomics of a country like billions of tiny cells that make up a human body. Often we are more concerned about macroeconomic conditions, without the need to strengthen micro-economics, but the views and policies is very wrong, because of the micro cells strong and healthy then it will form a strong and healthy body. Thus if the growth of most micro-cells have a constraint, many obstacles, illnesses and viruses, it also will significantly affect the vitality and macro economic conditions. Microeconomics is composed of various business activities, such as industry (large, medium, small) and real trade services and finansil (large, medium, small), to traditional retail stores and modern as well as street vendors. An industry will consist of the manufacturing entity supported by various companies suppliers of raw and auxiliary materials, intermediate goods, components and goods distribution and retail network to market the product manufacturing. Fluctuation of various economic factors, such as currency values, the level of competition and the entry of new products from domestic and global markets, inflation, interest rate and price level of various types of commodity raw materials, supplies and components will determine the cost of the price level manufacturing and cost of goods sold and the level of corporate profits and the level of penetration into the market (market share) which will also determine the level fluctuations of profits, opportunities, growth, competition and business risk. 

       So, the economist in economic outlook how to prevent the economic planning to avoid the turbulencies, crisis and recession that make economic downturn is how to see a whole frame of business conditions which will be influences on economic macro performances and not reverse it. This is must be change for mindset of economic driven that economic performance based only on economic policies but the really true is how good our business performance that makes good and stable of our macro economic to move up in healthy growth and not only just for finance sectors. This is why many economist and monetarist make a blunder to make up economic downturn only focusing in finance problem solving like bailout, stimuli and quantitative easing just for finance institutions problem solving and the real sector not be a priority to be safely and healthy. This is why, even the Fed have flooding the money for finance sector, the economic growth still weak, the inflation rate is still calmly, unemployment rate still high and the poors still not being able to buy consumption of industrial products with lower buying power. So, right now, the authority of economic planning not only do by economist but also must be support by real business sectors cycle (Main Street) considerations in every economic policy decision making to match on the business driven condition but not more focusing on finance condition (Wallstreet dominancies) that always make on overheating, bubble, high speculation and turbulencies in economic conditions.. 
        Often identified with the micro economic slow-moving real sector, the physical form of the building area of factories, real estate, building property and agricultural land (in the broad sense) with the product that "tangible goods". While macroeconomic identified with finansil sector / banking, fast-moving that often cause the condition of "bubble and overheating economic", by the expansion of credit to the real sector and services, excessive speculation in financial markets, stocks, derivatives and commodities and are virtual with services products that "intangible goods". Rapid movement and a giant in the sector finansil was indeed to create market conditions finansil climb high with rally’s, and finally turbulences for catastroph and crash landing that caused panic effect like a tsunami, earthquake and snow balling. Actors finansil like a bird and the air movement that can move quickly across countries and continents in a high speed that is supported by the sophistication of computerized system of information technology and global telecommunications. Rapid movement and this giant storm that can cause effects (wind) or a tsunami (water) that can be destructive and fatal. Medium movement in the real sector, it would be difficult to quickly move a variety of asset building, machinery, people and products in a short time. 

         So that, there are various factors that influence each other complexities (interinfluence) and dependence (interdependent) between macroeconomic and microeconomic needs to be addressed in a wise, just, prudent and visionary. For that to economists and businesspeople should be aware of these complex conditions by using the theory of economics and business complexes and high dimension (2-4) in order to better know the different strains of macroeconomic conditions, micro and its supporting elements in the form of fluctuations in various macroeconomic factors and price commodity (money, stocks, raw materials and auxiliary industries) and climate change. Conditions facing the world today as when the crisis went into the fall (the leaves falling corporate / bankruptcy) and is now entering the winter (winter). Whether with a variety of economic and monetary policy with low interest rates, quantitative easing money, bailout and stimulus to work well for a healthy recovery and return by entering the spring (the flowers bloom and grow back) or a while, and immediately went into the summer to deal with the fall and next winter as it has been prolonged experienced by Japan since 1990 until today. 
         Indeed, with low interest rates and packages quantitative easing by the central bank and the bailout and fiscal stimulus by the financial enough to make the effect a bit warm, but whether it can continue to be a strong recovery, healthy and long-term or just get up just to fall back further down , as has been predicted by economists, USA, Prof.. Nouriel Roubini that the U.S. economy will be experience a state of "double dip recession" by inappropriate economic policies and the mounting debt burden that could result in "default" (default), inflation risk, systemic risk of default (default) countries Europe, like Greece, Portugal and Spain and the risk of speculative volatility in commodity exchanges oil and other commodities that ultimately have to be restructured at a cost of more expensive and the American manufacturing sector is increasingly lost in the domestic and global markets of products of China and other countries. And the bio-rhythmic as it should happen slowly and gradually for a prolonged recession if it can be managed properly, prudent and professional to dampen severe recession in the days to come up with preventive manner that is "Zero Problem and Zero Cost" for economic growth, in real and finance sectors business to provide high value added. 

Foot note :

         Fluctuations in short-term (daily and weekly) will occur naturally influenced by state of mentality, passion, taste, motivation of global mass psychology to take trading positions in a market that is crowded and often chaotic. If there is data or news that very fundamental economic conditions, business and politics, fluctuations in stock price movements will occur dynamically and both meteoric and volatile free fall in excess of the daily forecast. But in the medium and long-term investment will be influenced dynamically by biocycle and biorhytmic of legal and natural forces are always moving up and down dynamically. So you not only have to Globalization with Globalnet (internet system) but also now should have a vision in a way Galaxization with Galaxinet * * (Astronomical).

         Where we can know the strains and the condition of the Universe Kingdom in the short term (10 years), medium term of 50 years and long term 100-200 years), which will also be evident in a "Certainty of Life rather than Uncertainty Life " who always complained of many parties, including the leaders of the state policy makers, leaders of business policy (industrialists and traders) as well as experts in various fields of life. The power and influence of Galaxy Law (Universe Kingdom) this will always affect every aspect of our lives on this planet, either consciously or unconsciously to anticipate properly.

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