Sabtu, 03 Maret 2012

The Death of Economic ? The Answer is Bioeconomic Natural or Econobusiness Biocycle Dynamic as a New Alternative

By : Edmond F. Lalang (economic and environment observer)
            There are some complains that economy science have been not be able to accurate predictions  and in problem solving on various complex on economic problems, even since 1930 year that “The Great Deppression” happen until financial crisis on sub-prime mortgages and it derivatives in 2007 year. This crisis still exist and began to contaminated the European Economic Countries. Exactly, economic science still able to predicted on economic activities is simple, closely and regional nature with bilateral trading systems. But with globalization, especially in financial sector on money, stocks, derivatives, commodities, treasury bills market and obligation markets, the economic knowledge will be not work accurately and good analyzes. That the same for economic planning have failure for raise up the public prosperity and find the good job and opportunity, included how to manage their debts, how to plan the developed sectors in priority scale to give the leveraging of economic growth quality for all peoples to get the prosperity level. According to Prof. Paul Ormerod that economic science have been dead and he will be give a solutions to used The Butterfly Economic Methods in forming of ants teamwork in groups and organization systems harmony to get their food and life.
            For many economist this paper to remember on book of Paul Ormerod with topic “The Death of Economics”. It is maybe a signal that rapidly or slowly, Faculty of Economy will be disappear. But for myself this is no need for disappear if they want to see the this reality and began to adoption some of knowledge like biology (bio-economic), physical (econo-physic), chemistry, butterfly economic, medical, psychologic, social business management and economic natural based scope (eco-system like eco-nomy) into various of their formulas and technical analyzed method without very much involved in matemathic and statistical science (being dynamical science like aerodynamic, water dynamic and population dynamic) in their analyze predictions and find a good solutions on economic development vision in “Struggle for Life in the Forest” and not anymore in “Survival of the Fittest in the Jungle or Desert”.  Also they must not used various assumptions that truly not a reality that will be happen. The econometrics still be good for the micro and private sectors for financial and accounting scope but if to enter the economic macro economy must be translated into various discipline sides.
             Adam Smith as a Father of Economic Science says  that  economy  is  a knowledge how to prosperity the peoples with always to keep the natural and outer space (astronomies) in harmony and synergic for the now and next generations. But economic science have to loose “soul” as foundation have create by Adam Smith, Keynes and David Ricardo as well Schumpeter. Economy science that the real is a knowledge to learn about human behavior which very complex, but now have been by pass with mathematics model that which very complex and frightening.  But the Adam Smith economist follower can’t able to translated this formulas into the good methods, analyzes and economic decisions. The essence of this glorious message is that we should treat human beings, human relationships with other human beings in economic activities and economic decision making should be in the context of a harmonious social environment, natural environment and the environment in the vision of the universe, activities and more complex concepts (non-linear), humane and environmentally friendly nature rather than maximization of profit and the exploitation of natural resources and human resources in the social aspect. That is why economics and business only produces a variety of issues, such as social inequality, environmental degradation, social upheaval and political economy, poverty, disease, war and mental damage (selfishness, greed, consumerism, and excess property without a conscience).

          According to me, there are some big questions to economy science that not yet able to answer with complete and accurately like :

1. Economy science have not yet able to make accurately predicting for many      economic macro indicators in monthly, quarterly and yearly and always must be revised.
2. Can not able to predicting many factors of internal and external risk, included in     method of management risk, how to prevented and avoid from its systemic risk.
3. Why economics is just using mathematical and statistical science in  perform a variety of macroeconomic indicators predict that it could not follow the dynamics of business economics, including the speed of technological change.  And also build a variety of financial structures that are very vulnerable to the influence of economic turmoil, both in terms of its architecture and foundation building a variety of levels by simply manipulating and derivating mathematical calculation to establish a structure of financial derivatives very large, massive and widespread but very fragile economic turbulencies effect.
4. Economics has not been able to cover a variety of social inequality, poverty, make income distribution as well as economic analysis appropriate environment to prevent environmental damage and social consequences  various economic development activities in an integrated, effective and efficient.
5. In calculating the time, science is only wearing a variety of derivatives mathematic to predict the strains of the human dynamics of business economics with linier  calculating (dimension 1) without entering  aspects of cultural, social and     psychological man who always want to progress and change  with the dynamics of  dimension 2 - 4.

Footnote :

         Fluctuations in short-term (daily and weekly) will occur naturally influenced by state of mentality, passion, taste, motivation of global mass psychology to take trading positions in a market that is crowded and often chaotic. If there is data or news that very fundamental economic conditions, business and politics, fluctuations in stock price movements will occur dynamically and both meteoric and volatile free fall in excess of the daily forecast. But in the medium and long-term investment will be influenced dynamically by biocycle and biorhytmic of legal and natural forces are always moving up and down dynamically. So you not only have to Globalization with Globalnet (internet system) but also now should have a vision in a way Galaxization with Galaxinet * * (Astronomical).

         Where we can know the strains and the condition of the Universe Kingdom in the short term (10 years), medium term of 50 years and long term 100-200 years), which will also be evident in a "Certainty of Life rather than Uncertainty Life " who always complained of many parties, including the leaders of the state policy makers, leaders of business policy (industrialists and traders) as well as experts in various fields of life. The power and influence of Galaxy Law (Universe Kingdom) this will always affect every aspect of our lives on this planet, either consciously or unconsciously to anticipate properly.

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