Senin, 03 Juni 2013

Bio Risk Management : How can the Country and Corporate Strategic Planning that able to prevent or avoid many risks in Economy and Business

By : Edmond F. La’lang (economic and natural environment observer)

             Bio Risk Management is means to know that how can the Country and Corporate to make a real good Strategic Planning that able to prevent or avoid many risks in Economy and Business the Credit Risk, Market Risk, Business Risk and another Risks on Competition, Turbulencies, Crisis and Recession

- Perspectives on Biological and Psychological Ways to get the Real Good Strategic 
        Let me add to give another way of some new suggestion on perspectives to used of the biological and psychological ways of thinking about the case of debt of a company. Life is a game with a lot of risks in addition to benefits and advantages that can be gained from the ability, achievement, creativity, innovation and business management professionals better. Risk will always be an open market is a market in which more and more competitors, the bigger share of the market, more and more consumers to choose the product of a company and the various regulations made by the government in which the company operates. And of course the dynamics of natural law will always cause fluctuations in turmoil even to be prevented before they occur with the Early Warning System, with a swift soon to anticipate the problems and market risk and business risk.

          Supposedly the composition of corporate debt to its capital structure to keep it safe from the risks of macroeconomic volatility, fluctuations in the stock market index, foreign exchange rate, commodity market fluctuations (and complement raw materials for manufacturing and mining corporations), changes in the prime interest rate and the commercial rate to cost of funds, inflation rate (CPI and PPI), profitability, prospective business enterprise, the ability to compete and a variety of product excellence, marketing mix strategy, service, cost of manufacturing and administration and so on. Fatal error at most companies (banks, manufacturing and services) is to assume that the price level of the stock and assets and also commodity prices from a mining company can be a collateral to obtain a bank loan that has multiple leveraging is the very real risk of a variety of market risks in the form of economic turbulencies, crisis and recession. Capital structure that makes sense and being cautious is the capital of 60-80% and accounts payable around 20-40%. If the ratio of debt to capital increase, the risk of default also will be bigger and should not be played with a variety of financial mathematical simulations.

- Mathematical Methods Fatality Risk on Free Natural Free Risk and Business Economic Conditions

Often, the state andthe company did over-leveraging way to reduce risk only with mathematical and statistical calculations of Risk Free Rate with actually adds to the burdens of the real risk for the country and the company. Moreover, with a variety of acrobatic financial engineering by means digging holes vent cap, debt refinancing, debt rollover, swap debt to equity ratio, promissory debt, obligations coupon and other financial action. For it should state economist and companies need to analyze the ability of indebted themselves to be rational in order to give a good and powerfull leveraging effect in a way that gives the debt burden of risk naturally from various external threats and economic risk on their state and companies business. It required an carefull analysis of economic calculation with holistic (interdicipline sciences) business ways. And the various natural influences in the form multivariant calculations with non linier regression (like hiperbolic model) such as 2 or 3 dimensional calculations by incorporating a variety of Biological and Psichological indicators, the natural cycle, the level of taste and desire of consumers (market driven and market driving). And also the level compettion that is fierce in the national and global market share as well as the threat of the new products and new competitors in order to form a strategic plan for the state and company that will be reliable, sensible, ratonal and beware of the existence of an "Free Natural Risk" to be used optimally.

- Country and Corporate Risks that maybe fall in Bad Loans and Debt Trap

         Companies that take a lot of debt with a smaller capital structure will experience a greater risk of default, despite having supported by a variety of sophisticated financial mathematics and risk management on various Financial Ratios according to the rules Basel I to Basel III. The risk in this case is the inability to pay the debt, because the interest rate risk of debt, particularly of a commercial character in the form of a floating interest rate. Problems currently faced by the U.S. and European countries as well as various financial and manufacturing companies are leveraging the use of exaggeration to be bubble stock price and the value of its assets without taking into account the potential risk of economic turmoil that will occur in the future, only simulations using mathematical and statistical calculations alone. Many economic crisis since the Great Depression has killed millions of companies to experience huge losses and even bankruptcy both in banking, manufacturing, services and other financial services should experience a variety of internal and external risks, due to ignorance of the natural dynamics of the process that will always occur in a system of living organisms, either individually or range of human creation in the course of business of the company's life cycle.
        Likewise experienced by developed countries, the United States and Europe, as well as less precise in managing debt for development, always will be save with Bailout (dependents and state debt rather than the company that has been in default in investment activity that is not carefully tended even greedy to reap huge profits without self-control) to thousands corporate of  banking, manufacturing, property and insurance back to health in the context of "Too big to Fail" context by means of a bailout, stimulus and quantitative easing on the truth of the Neoliberal Capitalism way of thinking is not effective and efficient even it will add to the debt burden of the country itself . This is different from how the country is nearly bankrupt Iceland but it can quickly get out of the debt crisis and economic recession, for not wearing a neoliberal economic thinking, but a way to allow the operation of a way of thinking "Austrian Economic System" on private companies to fend for themselves and account for risk as a result from their own mistakes, or natural selection to survive without the help and always pampered by the government while the real sector of small and medium just often ignore her fate in a policy of economic injustice which always helps companies magnitude alone. So of course this ease the budget burden Icelandic government to immediately help companies that are still strong enough without having to provide the facilities that indulge companies that have abused their own businesses and debt without providing help for a bailout, the stimulus and QE policy by printing new money on top of economic weakness and small and medium suffering people.

       So that, maybe there is another approach is needed should really know how to process these risks occurring and will come to affect the business , investment and trading activities and the state of your company at that time . Where humans can not always know and be aware of exactly what will actually happen in the future as a result of linear thinking and human greed to continue rich , want to get ahead , expansive , creative compete hard and excessively without control and without knowing much less constraints and the ability to self The Natural Limits of the Law of Nature itself. Those, there is a byword emergence of Uncertainty in the various activities of Economics and Business. Come visit many of my blog to know and may be useful for strategic planning business for 1-25 years. Or as George Soros said he walked 6 months ahead of the curve where he really knows what will happen in the financial markets and the real sector much earlier to take preventive action that is both the position and should be selling out of the market sector to avoid losses and often reap huge profits while many other investors sweating, confusion, panic and big losses.

Footnote :

         Fluctuations in short-term (daily and weekly) will occur naturally influenced by state of mentality, passion, taste, motivation of global mass psychology to take trading positions in a market that is crowded and often chaotic. If there is data or news that very fundamental economic conditions, business and politics, fluctuations in stock price movements will occur dynamically and both meteoric and volatile free fall in excess of the daily forecast. But in the medium and long-term investment will be influenced dynamically by biocycle and biorhytmic of legal and natural forces are always moving up and down dynamically. So you not only have to Globalization with Globalnet (internet system) but also now should have a vision in a way Galaxization with Galaxinet even the Whole Universes * * (Astronomical).

         Where we can know the strains and the condition of the Universe Kingdom in the short term (10 years), medium term of 50 years and long term 100-200 years), which will also be evident in a "Certainty of Life rather than Uncertainty Life " who always complained of many parties, including the leaders of the state policy makers, leaders of business policy (industrialists and traders) as well as experts in various fields of life. The power and influence of Natural, Galaxy and Universes Law (Universe Kingdom /Source One in Central Sun Universe) this will always affect every aspect of our lives on this planet, either consciously or unconsciously to anticipate properly.

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