Minggu, 04 Maret 2012

Assumptions and Mathematic Linier Simulations on Economic Science

By : Edmond F. Lalang (economic and environment observer)

-There are the many assumption in Economic Calculations that match to the reality on Dynamics and Fluctuations of Economic

          Economics has long stuck in the further utilization  of  science  and  mathematics  to  predict  and  make decision economic policy and began to ignore the various supporting science is actually very precise,  such  as social sciences, the science of psychology, biological sciences (pure and applied) and environmental science. Economy science have used various assumptions as parameter in calculated velocity of economic growth, macro indicators and factors that influences economic which often not representative and describe the real conditions that exist in local and global economy. Economist only simulated formulas derivative in mathematics which will examined by statistical method, like examined of honestly, deviation standard on data validations, calculated opportunities and pessimistic - optimistic scenarios, etc. in coordinate pattern structure which form a straight line as 1 dimension on many data points. So that the yield of economic methods only make a closed, simple, short and static in calculating, predicting, decision making, planning and acting in economic policies. 

      This is not describe of the human dynamic aspects in conditions of biologic and psychologic aspects of human being as businessman, hope and basic needs of counsuments and producens for raw and aid materials, free market competitions and speculations, inventing and innovations technologies in generally was very complex nature and have 2 – 3 dimensions that being able to measure accurately by economic liner method which have low dimension and linieristic.

-Economic Knowledge only used the Mathematic Linier Line with Regression Formulas

         Basically, first dimension (linier or straight line) will be dominated by second dimension (kwadratic line or area with X Y coordinate) and second dimension will be dominated by third dimension (space or volume with X Y Z coordinate), where human complexity as biologic, psychologic and social creature will be describe by third dimension. The first, second and third dimensions is arrangement and regulated by nature environments with Natural Laws and of course Human Laws. And finally third dimension will be dominated by fourth dimension (supernatural)  that arrangement and regulated by  Supernatural Laws from the Outer Space (Galaxy) and for in human religion is by The GOD from the Heaven. The third dimension many involved by pure biology, applied biology (medical, agriculture, fisheries, live stocks, forestry and biotechnology), phylosophy, psychology, sociology, arts and music, feng sui and hong sui, included market financial (financial astronomy), information and communication technology and computerized systems like computer artificial intelligent, bio-hibrid and others.

         Human live in earth will be influences by first until fourth dimension in form of physical and chemistry (first and second dimension), biological influences for growth since birth, kid, youth, mature, old and die which influence growth of physic, biologic and psychologic (mentality) according to their culyure development, education, spirit, prestation, social status as “Maslow Pyramide” to find and attain their needs and wants toward mental psychology and self actualization of personal and social group (3 dimensions) and living with harmony, obedient and peace in their religion (4 dimensions).  Closely, simple and linier of economic model theory of course is not able to anticipated and accurate predicting for midterm (monthly-yearly) and longterm (decades and century). Economy science can able to good predicted if in closely economy, monopolistic and simple without many external factor influences.
-Economic Science have been leave the Social Science to get more accurate predictions and solutions in Economic Mechanism and Fluctuations

       According to M. Dawam Raharjo (Cakrawala, Bisnis Indonesian News Paper) that economist have never consider culture factor to their economy formula. Whereas culture is a dynamic picture for growth, creative, grouping and organizing which appropriate with norms and customs in human life every day, depends on closely, static and conservative or openly, dyamic and modern that can be defined development rate of their nation, include economic sector.  Also, Alan Greenspan, economist popular and ex-officio Federal Reserve Board about Russian case after leaving their socialism system to being market capitalism that not able to develop their free market economy. But he is forget about China which being more develop so fast to be strong like USA in 2020, so he tells that not nature at all, but culture. During this, he saw that the market is like nature, have certain laws, as economists generally view. This happens controversy in the formula and economic practices that would be purely linear.

       We think actually if economists incorporate the laws of nature, particularly biological it will clear the existence of a "certainty of natural law" because it naturally which makes the occurrence of a cycle of civilization (culture) human, including the economic cycle (recovery, prosperity and recession) in travel space and time. As the paragraph above that Adam Smith made basic economic theories based on natural law, but in applying the formula, the theory and practice has not implemented this idea by his economist followers. They currently just dwell on the mathematical formulas and statistics that are linear mere without including the various formulas and the reality of natural law, such as physics, chemistry and biology. Economists only lower (derivate which is now rampant in various forms of financial derivatives business) empirical mathematical formulas and assumptions - assumption of a linear expectation regardless of the natural law (dimensions 2 - 3) and supernatural law (dimension 4) that will always affect the cycle and cultural upheavals and human civilization, (including economics), which it clearly appears that economic development and technological development is often not friendly to the natural and social environments.

-Why Einstein Relativity Formulas can be match on Good and Efficiency of Economic Growth without make any Economic Turbulences and Crisis and also not to damages on Natural Environment?

            So economists and technologists should rely more on Einstein's theory of relativity, E = mc2 to produce energy (nuclear electrics), profits, results and progress abundant (modernity) technology without having to sacrifice a lot of capital costs, losses (due to risk of economic cycles and shocks), waste of natural resources, social inequality and environmental destruction with the efficiency of m (mass) in less quantity, but increase the speed square (c2), and how to make the raw materials for semi-finished goods that not so much used the natural resources for our next seventh generations.  And finally not to make a damage the natural environments, because the environments can revenge us like earth quake, tsunami, volcano erupts, water flooding, land catastroph, extreme climate, blizzards, wind storm, global warming, pandemic diseases, economic crisis and recession and much more again.  So don’t kill the earth environment for just your greedy and selfish pleasure only.

Foot note :

This is shorterm and longterm fluctuation which will be happen in naturally that drive by mood and psychological global mass to take trading positions in crowded market. But if there are a very urgent fundamental data or news, the fluctuation in graphic maybe happen in turbulence fluctuation move up or move down more than shorter forecasting.  And a part of big fluctuation dynamic on biorhythmic and biocycle in midterm and longterm cycle. So you may not being only Globalize with Internet but now you must be have vision as GALAXIZATION with GALAXINET    

Where we can know the strains and the condition of the Universe Kingdom in the short term (10 years), medium term of 50 years and long term 100-200 years), which will also be evident in a "Certainty of Life (certainty) rather than uncertainty (uncertainty) "who always complained of many parties, including the leaders of the state policy makers, leaders of business policy (industrialists and traders) as well as experts in various fields of life. The power and influence of Law galaxy (Universe Kingdom) this will always affect every aspect of our lives on this planet, either consciously or unconsciously to anticipate properly. 

on  Forex, World Indexes and 
Commodities Market

Contact :
Edmond F. La'lang
Email  :   edmond.lalang@gmail.com
Telp.    :  +62031-3538606
HP       :  +62081-553080521 
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