Minggu, 10 Agustus 2014

A Scientific Revolution in Finance

A Scientific Revolution in Finance
July 15, 2014


A financial revolution has begun, one that leverages the power of psychological data to help investors make better decisions. 

IMATCHATIVE, a San Francisco-based company, is a key player in this sea change. Their network, AltX, , connects investors with hedge funds, using the same nuanced behavioral models that have upended the worlds of movie-rental, bookselling, and online dating.

Embodying AltX's human-centered vision is Dr. Thomas Oberlechner, the company's Chief Science Officer. Oberlechner comes to AltX from the worlds of clinical psychology and academia, and his groundbreaking research on behavioral drivers in financial markets has been covered in the Washington Post, the BBC, and the Neue Z├╝rcher Zeitung.

According to Oberlechner, the next generation of investing tools are moving beyond risk-adjusted return as their sole guiding metric. "The traditional focus on outcome data is shortsighted," Oberlechner says. "These outcomes are produced in the interaction between highly volatile, unpredictable environments, so you never really know whether the returns are based on chance or skill."

Oberlechner credits AltX's success to the fact that recent breakthroughs in behavioral science are built into the application's core. “We're taking elements of how people decide and understand the market around them," he explains. "We're analyzing their unique personalities, values, goals, and ways of processing information. Then we integrate that into our models."

Those AltX models combine Oberlechner's psychological insights with deep financial data and a powerful analytics engine. The resulting mix of qualitative and quantitative information greatly facilitates investors to find the right funds for their needs. 

"This," says Oberlechner, "is where science and systematic behavioral assessments can tremendously support traditional investment approaches that focus on past outcomes only."

The secret of every revolutionary financial tool, Oberlechner explains, is adaptability.

“What differentiates good therapists from bad therapists is that they can flexibly adjust to who they are dealing with, and don't impose the same model on everyone. Providing support to financial decision-makers is no different—the more you know about what makes an investor unique and the behavioral make-up of fund managers, the better you can connect both sides."

That support, he says, can literally change the way both groups see the world. “It's transforming flat, two-dimensional shadows of financial decision-makers into full, three-dimensional people and organizations.”

Interested in finding out more about Dr. Oberlechner and AltX?  Visit www.GetAltX.com

Minggu, 25 Mei 2014

Some Evidence Accuracy and Precision Prediction of the Bioeconomica Natural or Econobusiness Biocycle Dynamic

My vision is midterm and longterm for investment driven and shortterm trading. This support with experiences in Socioeconomic & Land Mapping Survey and Region Planning Report, so that I have Long Vision in Biocycle Dynamic Mechanism on Human Life Activities, include Econobusiness Biocycle Dynamic or Natural Bio-Economic that based on Natural Law Driven.This method can be accurate and finely to know and predicted on Economic, Business, Technology, Social, Politic and Life Environment whats going on in the Future (midterm 1 - 5 years and longterm 5 - 25 years)

- How to think Biological Methods in Economics and other disciplines

I make this prediction based on the data chart (technical ) and fundamental data, both micro (stock) and macroeconomic (forex and commodities) that we though the biological method , just as the conditional reflex , the law of diminishing return , bio-rhythmic, complex ecosystem harmony and others. Determination of the biological portion of our predictions are 45 %, 30 % Technical Charts and 25 % of Macroeconomic Fundamentals. Bioeconomic Natural Method timing and momentum will wear during recovery conditions (rebound) after experiencing consolidation followed by a cycle of prosperity (bullish), where nature will provide power for uphill riding (exceeds the force of gravity to go down). Later on consolidation at its peak in the form of doom, the trade is likely to make best efforts to keep rising, so the consolidation will happen if it continues to rise forcing excessive saturation will occur or in the words of Georges Soros is self-reinforcing as the deadline for who can no longer ride and will be similar landslides or rupture of the dam water is catastrophic (collapse) prices in the stock market, forex and commodities. This is evident from the condition of the monetary and economic crisis Indonesia in 1997/1998, which saw economic growth continues to be driven at the level of 7 %, but Indonesia carrying capacity was not able to contain the inflation rate is always high, resulting in overheating by "Overinvestment and Overconsumption" and this is conditions eventually make an Crash Landing.

- Excessive desire without self-support ability and potential that good and strong
 
         Economists and business people should have to see that the economic race like a Formula 1 circuit ( Michael Schumacer ) and MotoGP, when to speeding with gears 4-5, when to put the brakes near the bend and lower gears to 1-3, cornering slowly, then accelerated faster if has entered the straight track as a linear line. So far, economists and business people continue to want to grow fast without seeing that there is a tidal wave, up hill down hill and also underestimates the rhythm of his racing car aerodynamics without sufficient down force. It is also happening in America and Europe (case nearly bankrupted Greece, Spain, Portugal and symptoms in the UK), where the Investment Banking spur its economy, especially investment in derivatives with various levels that led to many major banks suffered a major loss and the collapse of Lehman Brothers and 200 more banks and possibly thousands of companies large and small, like leaves falling in autumn (fall). This fall will create turmoil and crisis and the fall of the government either directly through revolution (like the fall of the New Order regime) or by the next election, as is the case in Europe where some of the country's leaders lost the election. because they can not drown out the upheavals and the economic crisis, so much banks and large corporate enterprises and medium bankrupt or suffered great losses that must be done bailout that actually adds to a growing debt burden. It is a pattern of rescue and problem solving are actually very irrational, because it only saves large corporates (Too Big to Fail) that it actually is the manufacturer's own economic problems as an Trouble Maker. While small companies who do not obey the financial principle and large debt loads have instead often forgotten, including the little people more vulnerable to the economic crisis became so poor and unemployment due to layoffs and most are given a social safety net as well as the temporary stimuli (that is also possible of new debt) that the effect is only slight and not significant to revive the economic engine that hamppir ebsar bankrupt because of debt, either in installments or interest debts. Not to mention the many moral hazard and fraud in banking and business , giving rise to the crisis of confidence due to the swift Capital Outflow abroad and the collapse of the Rupiah. This is in contrast with China is able to sustain its economic growth rate in at 9.5 - 11.0% per year with low inflation as well as a conducive business climate.

- Prevention Ways with the Early Warning System       

Here I used the Bio-Risk Management and Bio-Natural Concept to determine the Preventive Ways crisis with the Early Warning System of the rise and fall of the movement (oscillation fluctuations) that if more stringent and more like a volcanologist hard to know when the eruption of a volcano or physician can determine the condition of the patient chart heartbeat or climatologists can predict when it will rain with high winds or storms .Bio Economic Natural is focus on preventive safely without the risk of than just the cost of problem solving that cost, and the victim time to be recovery. Georges Soros with Reflection method of "Walking 6 Months in Home curve" can be used to determine the occurrence of a crisis or turmoil (turbulencies). 

- Some evidence of appropriate and accurate predictions as below :
 
1. Turbulence which caused the monetary and economic crisis Indonesian 1997 that I have been predicted in 1994 that the value of Rupiah will drop (depreciated) to more than Rp. 17,500 / 1 US$ to the SBI more than 30 % due to reaction (IMF advice) to a sharp decline in the rupiah. It turned increasingly Rupiah down to Rp . 17.000,- due to panic us by buying US$ and speculation, so that when the IMF was invited, suggested to increase generic prescribing SBI (Indonesia Bank Certificate) up to 70 % and finally began to strengthen towards Dollar under Rp . 10.000an.

2. In 1999, after two years of crisis, I predicted that the economic crisis will began to subside in 2004 with growth from 4 to 5.5 % and finally began to rise in2007 with an economic growth of 5.75 % - 6.1 %, despite never reaching 6.3 % in the Megawati era in 2003, but its condition has not stabilized properly to bounce back.

3. In 2005, shortly before the reduction of the fuel subsidy, we predict that the Euro will depreciate more than Rp. 11,250 (at the time the prediction is still rupiah at Rp. 8.850an and finally it had touched rupiah at Rp. 11750-12000 at several major banks. We also predict that the SBI will go to 12-14%, while many economists have argued that the SBI will only reach to 10.0% only, SBI turns it reached 12.75%. Similarly, the Euro where almost all well-known economists predict that the Euro may not exceed Rp. 10,000, but I say it out loud in a radio Surabaya guided by Prof. economists. DR. Wibisono H. (UBAYA Rector and Chairman of the Indonesian Rectors Forum at the time) and DR. Pandu ak. (Head Master UBAYA) that will inevitably lead to Rupiah IDR. 12,000. Taklshow was attended by entrepreneurs, professionals and also bankers in Surabaya on every Saturday morning.

4. I also correctly predicted in 2001 when the Iraq crisis until the U.S. invasion in 2003, the U.S. economy will experience a mild to moderate recession in 2007/2008. This invasion is just a trigger for the recession that is already fragile U.S. since 1998, where overlaid by an aggresive Cut Rate Policy  that makes a variety of economic vulnerability due to the increasing number of lines of credit, especially small and medium business sector in various ladders..Moreover this is derivatived on subprime mortgages business without based on the underlying assets and strong business in a small to medium sized business sector is highly vulnerable to turmoil and an economic downturn.

5. Predicted the fall of the Suharto regime in 1998 since 1993, the failure of capitalism system such as is the case this time since 1993 that soon changed to Soft Capitalism or Modern Socialism (such as Chinese or Scandinavian models), the accounting system should be renewed before the accounting fraud case (Enron) in the USA in 2001, entered the military barracks in 2000 by the 1998 reform since 1993 and the emergence of China as a world economic power it is today that we have predicted since 1989.

6. Cases mudflow in Sidoarjo, where there is a debate whether it is caused by a natural disaster or earthquake Jogya just one oil drilling by PT. Minarak Lapindo. According to geologists, mining and others that it will decrease the appearance of mud back at the time had reached 25,000 m3/second bursts. But I said in a radio station that will reach 150,000 m3/second bursts and eventually turns it really happened, while the mining and geological experts forecast even predicted that slip away because it is only temporary bursts that will eventually decrease again.

7. A number of flood disasters, such as in Situbondo in 2001 I predicted since 1998, large floods in Jakarta in 2002 since 1999. Similarly, by way of Open Minded and Divergence Opinion and  Thinking of the "Power of Nature World System and the Universe Kingdom", then you can feel the vibrations of impending earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, including a variety of signal fluctuation and political and economic crisis, and others from the results of the analysis "Method of Economics Natural Bio / Econobusiness Biocycle Dynamics" by Biological Analysis based on the Holistic Natural Law with the Power of the Natural Law and not based Economics Conventional that already Expiration because no longer able to manage and predict aspects of Welfare Economics for Humanity, but just for the sake of The Rich and Developed Countries are just now facing the Economic Recession and Debt Crisis.

       This method can also be used in the field of Political, Social, Agriculture (in the broad sense),  Health, The Natural Environment and others who generally are multi-dimensional and not physical, static and linieristik merely the calculation always refers to mathematical calculations and statistics.


Footnote :


         Fluctuations in short-term (daily and weekly) will occur naturally influenced by state of mentality, passion, taste, motivation of global mass psychology to take trading positions in a market that is crowded and often chaotic. If there is data or news that very fundamental economic conditions, business and politics, fluctuations in stock price movements will occur dynamically and both meteoric and volatile free fall in excess of the daily forecast. But in the medium and long-term investment will be influenced dynamically by biocycle and biorhytmic of legal and natural forces are always moving up and down dynamically. So you not only have to Globalization with Globalnet (internet system) but also now should have a vision in a way Galaxization with Galaxinet even the Whole Universes* * (Astronomical).


         Where we can know the strains and the condition of the Universe Kingdom in the short term (10 years), medium term of 50 years and long term 100-200 years), which will also be evident in a "Certainty of Life rather than Uncertainty Life " who always complained of many parties, including the leaders of the state policy makers, leaders of business policy (industrialists and traders) as well as experts in various fields of life. The power and influence of Natural, Galaxy and Universes Law (Universes Kingdom / Source One in Central Sun Universe) this will always affect every aspect of our lives on this planet, either consciously or unconsciously to anticipate properly.

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