Writing by Karyadi Ukay: Predictions and Expectations on the Koran KONTAN, 7 April 2009.
Comment by Edmond F. La'lang (economic and environment observer)
For example, the 1930's great depression in America is really beyond belief by economists. After the stock market crash of 1929, economists still believe pereknomian not have experienced a substantial decline. In fact, in late 1931, when the economy is actually in the state of very serious, economists of the caliber of Irving Fisher predicted that the economy will recover quickly. In reality, these predictions are far from the truth. Something similar happened in Indonesia. Before the economic crisis that began in mid 1997, many economists predict that the economy is fine. They are offering a number of economic indicators to show that Indonesia's economic fundamentals are still strong.
In my opinion, also on the 1997 Asian Economic Crisis, US Economic Recession on 2007 and of course European debt crisis at the moment with these realities, should economists began to realize whats wrong with my knowledge economy? And began to clean themselves against the various theories, simulation, engineering assumptions and calculations econometrics, mathematics and statistikanya (linear low-dimensional or dimension one) for incomplexity with higher-dimensional methods (dimension two - three) and by incorporating various elements of the complex nature of the humanist human biological (biorhytmic), mental (affectionate, spirited social / pilantrofis, courage, conscience, honesty, egoism, greed, knights), psychological (worries, nervousness, depression, panic, excitement, enthusiasm, excitement), environment ( ecosystems, biological and non biological resources, forest dynamics, meteorological cycles), social (culture, customs, social systems) and political (government party) to develop a true, accurate, and especially the direction of the "science of bio - economic dynamics" and "bio - quantum mathematics".
Conversely, in some cases, the grim predictions about the economy began not as sordid as described. Therefore, the parties interested in the results of the economic projections in the future, need to scrutinize the various economic forecasts offered the forecaster. Please remember, the validity of the predictions of forecasters depends pengggunaan and selection of models and assumptions about exogenous variables. But we think it should be a prediction should give some guidance forecasting validity, meaning not a perception but a "certainty of reality that should and must take place" by providing a clear picture of the economic projections in the future. Apply the model with various assumptions that makes a prediction becomes invalid and unrealistic, because the assumption is simply the result of thought and perception forecaster who often do not correspond to the real conditions of the current economy and in the future, so it makes the results of their predictions "are not valid and reliable ", and will continue to be revised.
My opinion is often this assumption is only physical and superficial without recognizing the reality of mental complexity and the human mind and the power of the natural environment that will always affect all human activities in the world that produces a harmonious interaction and synergy between humans and the natural environment. Keep in mind that the economy is a physical method and linear (say the program Windows 1990) are human beings and nature are complex, living (biological) and metaphysical (program Windows 2020) is of course difficult to read by the econometric results in a failure to properly read and accurately all the human and natural dynamics in economics, business, social, political and environment that led to the failure of economists to detect tsunamis and the recession and financial fund global economic deflation. Thus the economists would be hard to find the best way to resolve the problem of world economic recession in a timely, targeted, measurable and reliable method using linieristic.
Finally, the economic recovery will occur that is not the result of economists' prescriptions, but the fighting spirit and the global human efforts to recover according to the strains of biocycle and economic fluctuations are strongly influenced by the strength of dimension 2-4. Failure of the method of economics is what makes them not mention the decline and economic stagnation as a give rise to uncertainties and risks that can not be controlled by humans. Though life is full of certainty if humans can live in harmony with God, nature and each other to always adhere to the law abiding principle of his Lord, and the natural world. God has created the natural complexity of this system to be studied, researched, developed and expanded by the human brain for human survival for generations to avoid economic disasters, natural disasters, catastrophic illness, catastrophic social and political disaster in the world.
Economics has limitations in responding to the socio-economic problems that occur in society.
In our opinion, this is obvious, because the economics are simple to use method is linear dynamics and human nature is diverse and complex. Therefore, economists (who are aware of it) would be very careful in making projections and economic policy advice. Obviously yes, because the economics no longer grip, especially with the more open and dynamic global economy and interdependent, interacting and integrating it is needed urgently and fundamentally to change the paradigm of economics. Otherwise, this will keep many economists forecasting and business failures in the future. To be a reliable forecaster (always correct predictions) and worldwide, needed a method of bio-economic complex, the use of larger brains with EQ (15%), EQ (35%) and SQ (50%), power is far ahead visoner , open mind, open heart, open hand and open pocket (or philantrophis social life). So the world of university graduates (Harvard, Stanford, Cambridge) with Summa cum laude (with 4.0 with an IQ above 120an), is not a guarantee that he can perform forecasting and economic policy making and business appropriately and brilliant, as evidenced by the destruction of the Wall Street created an economy filled with heroes - the business capital of the method of mathematics, statistics and advanced econometrics. The opposite can be seen from the success of some global investors like George Soros, Warren Buffet, Pendelton, A. Fessant, and others can achieve big gains and has a major influence on world stock markets and money, without having to base their investment decisions on a micro and macro economic forecast of the forecaster on Wall Street, but using other sciences (physics, chemistry, psychologic, biologic and so on) is not based on economic science.
Fluctuations in short-term (daily and weekly) will occur naturally influenced by state of mentality, passion, taste, motivation of global mass psychology to take trading positions in a market that is crowded and often chaotic. If there is data or news that very fundamental economic conditions, business and politics, fluctuations in stock price movements will occur dynamically and both meteoric and volatile free fall in excess of the daily forecast. But in the medium and long-term investment will be influenced dynamically by biocycle and biorhytmic of legal and natural forces are always moving up and down dynamically. So you not only have to Globalization with Globalnet (internet system) but also now should have a vision in a way Galaxization with Galaxinet even the Whole Universes * * (Astronomical).
Where we can know the strains and the condition of the Universe Kingdom in the short term (10 years), medium term of 50 years and long term 100-200 years), which will also be evident in a "Certainty of Life rather than Uncertainty Life " who always complained of many parties, including the leaders of the state policy makers, leaders of business policy (industrialists and traders) as well as experts in various fields of life. The power and influence of Natural, Galaxy and Universe Law (Universe Kingdom / Source One in Central Sun Universe) this will always affect every aspect of our lives on this planet, either consciously or unconsciously to anticipate properly.
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